NFL simulation
Sim Explorer
Every figure on this page is simulation output: the share of simulated games in which it happened. It is not a pick, a projection from Troxler’s game models or a market price.
In back-testing the Sim matched the closing line on totals and trailed it on margin. In live grading so far it trails the close on both. It does not beat closing lines. Use it for ranges and combinations, not prices.
2026 week 6
14 games
Sim run Sun 5:31 AM ET · inactives not applied.
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Sign in to open the Sim's figures. Signed out, the slate shows each matchup and its kickoff.
A free account opens every game: the Game, Players and Combinations tabs.
- SEA at DENThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET
Final (OT): SEA 14, DEN 17
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- HOU at JAXSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET
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- BAL at CLESun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- CAR at PHISun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- CHI at ATLSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- NO at NYGSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- NYJ at NESun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- PIT at TBSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- TEN at INDSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
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- ARI at LASun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET
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- BUF at LVSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
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- LAC at KCSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
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- DAL at GBSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET
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- WAS at SFMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET
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How to read the Sim
- The Sim plays each game thousands of times before kickoff. A figure is the share of those simulated games in which something happened. Nothing is smoothed or blended with a market.
- Win shares count half of each tie for each side, so they compare with a two-way moneyline where a tie is a push.
- A spread or total exactly on a whole-number line is a push, shown separately. In a combination a push counts as not happening.
- Player figures count every simulation. When the Sim records no stat for a player in a simulation, that counts as zero; it is a simulated outcome, not a statement about his availability. Who plays comes from the week’s injury report and, when the run line says so, the game-day inactives.
- Each game’s run line says whether its inactives are in the figures. A game marked “inactives applied” was simulated again after both teams announced their inactives, with those players removed. One marked “inactives not applied” was simulated at the time printed, before that announcement, so a late scratch is not in the figures.
- Defensive player totals (tackles, sacks, interceptions) run 10 to 25 percent below box scores.
- The spread and total controls start at the Sim's even line: the half point nearest where the Sim's own chance crosses 50 percent. A “Market line” button jumps to the posted US-book line. Set any line to see how often the Sim clears it. The Sim is a pre-game number and does not update during a game.
- Market figures are the main line at US-regulated sportsbooks, with each book's vig removed and the books averaged (at least two books must price both sides, otherwise only the line is shown). They are a pre-game snapshot with the time printed. A difference between Sim and Market is a difference between two sources, not a recommendation.
- The accuracy statement comes from 295 graded games in 2024 and 2025. Some of the Sim's settings were tuned on those games, so it is not a holdout. Use the Sim to explore a game, not as a recommendation.