Founding member window. Accounts created on or before September 9, 2026 hold the founder rate on the research tier, $149.99 a year against the $249.99 list price, locked while the subscription renews. Troxler is free today.
See what others miss.
Institutional-grade analytics for prediction markets. Our quantitative models price each game against the market and publish the predictions where they carry expected value. Every one is posted before the event and graded afterward, wins and losses alike, on a record that is open to anyone.
No signup, no filtering, nothing held back. Read every prediction we have published and how each one settled, then decide for yourself.
What the public record covers
The market is wrong more often than you think.
Prediction markets are liquid, data-rich, and structurally inefficient. The edge belongs to those who can see past the noise.
Signal Over Noise
A prediction is published only when the model measures an edge against the market price. When it does not see one, we publish nothing at all.
Full Transparency
Every prediction is published before the event begins, and every result is recorded when it settles. Wins and losses both stay on the record, and the record is public.
Probabilities, Not Certainty
A published prediction is a probability estimate with an edge measurement attached. It can lose, and often will. Judge the method on the full record rather than on any one result.
How Troxler Works
Research-first. Opinion-second. Three steps from raw data to published prediction.
Step 01 — Data Ingestion
Edge Identification
We ingest game and player data from licensed sports feeds alongside live prices from the sportsbooks we track.
Edge is the difference between the probability our model estimates and the probability implied by the market price. It is a measurement taken at publication time, not a forecast of profit.
Step 02 — Model Output
Quantitative Modeling
Sport-specific quantitative models, trained on historical outcomes and calibrated against market prices, produce a probability for each outcome we cover. That probability is then compared with the price the market is offering.
- Pitch-by-pitch MLB modeling
- NBA game-level modeling
- PGA field-wide analysis
The full record is public
Every prediction we publish is graded and kept on one page: ROI, win rate and cumulative units, broken out by sport, bet category and month. Losing stretches are in there as well, because a record that omits them is not a record.
View the full recordThe research tier
An annual subscription for readers who want the work behind the record. The predictions, the props tools and the public record stay free.
What the tier includes
Research notes
Methodology and calibration reports on the published record, written for readers who want to check the work rather than take it on trust.
Analyzer seat
A seat on the play-level NFL analyzer. One million plays from 2015 through 2025, queryable by situation.
Early access
New sport boards and tools before they open to free accounts.
What it never includes
Predictions
Every prediction Troxler publishes stays free, with its edge measurement attached and its result on the public record.
Model probabilities
The probability behind each prediction is published with it. It is not sold separately and will not be.
$249.99 a year
Accounts created on or before September 9, 2026 hold the founder rate on the research tier, $149.99 a year against the $249.99 list price, locked while the subscription renews.
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