Founding member window. Accounts created on or before September 9, 2026 hold a discounted rate on paid research tiers when they launch. Troxler is free today.
See what others miss.
Institutional-grade analytics for prediction markets. Our quantitative models price each game against the market and publish the predictions where they carry expected value. Every one is posted before the event and graded afterward, wins and losses alike, on a record that is open to anyone.
No signup, no filtering, nothing held back. Read every prediction we have published and how each one settled, then decide for yourself.
What the public record covers
The market is wrong more often than you think.
Prediction markets are liquid, data-rich, and structurally inefficient. The edge belongs to those who can see past the noise.
Signal Over Noise
A prediction is published only when the model measures an edge against the market price. When it does not see one, we publish nothing at all.
Full Transparency
Every prediction is published before the event begins, and every result is recorded when it settles. Wins and losses both stay on the record, and the record is public.
Probabilities, Not Certainty
A published prediction is a probability estimate with an edge measurement attached. It can lose, and often will. Judge the method on the full record rather than on any one result.
How Troxler Works
Research-first. Opinion-second. Three steps from raw data to published prediction.
Step 01 — Data Ingestion
Edge Identification
We ingest game and player data from licensed sports feeds alongside live prices from the sportsbooks we track.
Edge is the difference between the probability our model estimates and the probability implied by the market price. It is a measurement taken at publication time, not a forecast of profit.
Step 02 — Model Output
Quantitative Modeling
Sport-specific quantitative models, trained on historical outcomes and calibrated against market prices, produce a probability for each outcome we cover. That probability is then compared with the price the market is offering.
- Pitch-by-pitch MLB modeling
- NBA game-level modeling
- PGA field-wide analysis
The full record is public
Every prediction we publish is graded and kept on one page: ROI, win rate and cumulative units, broken out by sport, bet category and month. Losing stretches are in there as well, because a record that omits them is not a record.
View the full record