NFL Futures Beta
Season-long markets as Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them
Team futures
Super Bowl Winner
18 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Impliedbar scale 0 to 15% | Odds | Volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 15.0% | +567 | 10.5M contracts |
 Buffalo Bills | 12.0% | +733 | 9.2M contracts |
 Los Angeles Rams | 11.0% | +809 | 10.6M contracts |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 10.0% | +900 | 7.2M contracts |
 Baltimore Ravens | 9.0% | +1011 | 5.5M contracts |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.0% | +1329 | 5.6M contracts |
 Seattle Seahawks | 7.0% | +1329 | 7.3M contracts |
 Chicago Bears | 4.0% | +2400 | 9.6M contracts |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 4.0% | +2400 | 9.6M contracts |
 Denver Broncos | 4.0% | +2400 | 7.1M contracts |
 Detroit Lions | 4.0% | +2400 | 4.1M contracts |
 Minnesota Vikings | 4.0% | +2400 | 6.2M contracts |
 New England Patriots | 4.0% | +2400 | 4.2M contracts |
 Dallas Cowboys | 3.0% | +3233 | 10.7M contracts |
 Atlanta Falcons | 2.0% | +4900 | 6.7M contracts |
 Green Bay Packers | 2.0% | +4900 | 4M contracts |
 Houston Texans | 2.0% | +4900 | 7M contracts |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 2.0% | +4900 | 6.2M contracts |
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Playoff Qualifier
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Impliedbar scale 0 to 100% | Odds | Volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 94.0% | -1567 | 46.9K contracts |
| Buffalo Bills | 92.0% | -1150 | 33.6K contracts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 92.0% | -1150 | 39K contracts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 88.0% | -733 | 35.7K contracts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 86.0% | -614 | 32.3K contracts |
| Minnesota Vikings | 80.0% | -400 | 93.4K contracts |
| New England Patriots | 74.0% | -285 | 58.2K contracts |
| Denver Broncos | 73.0% | -270 | 40.8K contracts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 72.0% | -257 | 63.4K contracts |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 66.0% | -194 | 18.5K contracts |
| Detroit Lions | 64.0% | -178 | 26.9K contracts |
| Seattle Seahawks | 59.0% | -144 | 42.5K contracts |
| Chicago Bears | 56.0% | -127 | 116.1K contracts |
| Dallas Cowboys | 50.0% | -100 | 243.9K contracts |
 Carolina Panthers | 48.0% | +108 | 65.6K contracts |
| Green Bay Packers | 38.0% | +163 | 74.3K contracts |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 36.0% | +178 | 131.7K contracts |
| Atlanta Falcons | 34.0% | +194 | 75K contracts |
| Houston Texans | 34.0% | +194 | 68.2K contracts |
 New York Giants | 30.0% | +233 | 325.3K contracts |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 29.0% | +245 | 262K contracts |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 27.0% | +270 | 94.2K contracts |
 Indianapolis Colts | 26.0% | +285 | 23.2K contracts |
 Cleveland Browns | 20.0% | +400 | 158.5K contracts |
 New Orleans Saints | 20.0% | +400 | 111.7K contracts |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.0% | +456 | 42.6K contracts |
 New York Jets | 15.0% | +567 | 189.3K contracts |
 Washington Commanders | 14.0% | +614 | 58.6K contracts |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 5.0% | +1900 | 87.7K contracts |
 Arizona Cardinals | 2.0% | +4900 | 109.9K contracts |
 Miami Dolphins | 2.0% | +4900 | 131.2K contracts |
 Tennessee Titans | 2.0% | +4900 | 38.8K contracts |
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Best Regular-Season Record
11 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Impliedbar scale 0 to 30% | Odds | Volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 27.0% | +270 | 99.3K contracts |
| Buffalo Bills | 15.0% | +567 | 106.6K contracts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 13.0% | +669 | 69.2K contracts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.0% | +1011 | 124.7K contracts |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9.0% | +1011 | 91.1K contracts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.0% | +1329 | 110.4K contracts |
| Denver Broncos | 3.0% | +3233 | 86K contracts |
| Detroit Lions | 3.0% | +3233 | 102.2K contracts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.0% | +3233 | 129.9K contracts |
| New England Patriots | 3.0% | +3233 | 59.8K contracts |
| Chicago Bears | 2.0% | +4900 | 93.5K contracts |
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Worst Regular-Season Record
8 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Impliedbar scale 0 to 50% | Odds | Volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 45.0% | +122 | 207.3K contracts |
| Tennessee Titans | 30.0% | +233 | 107.6K contracts |
| Arizona Cardinals | 11.0% | +809 | 117.7K contracts |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.0% | +1329 | 142.6K contracts |
| New Orleans Saints | 3.0% | +3233 | 35.5K contracts |
| Washington Commanders | 3.0% | +3233 | 51.9K contracts |
| New York Jets | 2.0% | +4900 | 94.2K contracts |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.0% | +4900 | 34.7K contracts |
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5+ Primetime Games
2 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Impliedbar scale 0 to 20% | Odds | Volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 17.0% | +488 | 7.8K contracts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.0% | +1150 | 365.3 contracts |
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Awards
The one market family both venues quote, so the two books can be compared directly.
Most Valuable Player
14 quoted by both · 12 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 30%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 6.0% | 3.5% | +2.5 pp | |
| Brock Purdy | 27.0% | 24.7% | +2.3 pp | |
| Lamar Jackson | 4.0% | 6.0% | -2.0 pp | |
| Caleb Williams | 2.0% | 3.8% | -1.8 pp | |
| Joe Burrow | 8.0% | 6.5% | +1.5 pp | |
| Jordan Love | 2.0% | 0.7% | +1.3 pp | |
| Patrick Mahomes | 11.0% | 9.9% | +1.1 pp | |
| Josh Allen | 26.0% | 25.0% | +1.0 pp | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2.0% | 1.0% | +1.0 pp | |
| Bijan Robinson | 2.0% | 1.4% | +0.6 pp | |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8.0% | 8.6% | -0.6 pp | |
| Dak Prescott | 3.0% | 3.4% | -0.4 pp | |
| Jared Goff | 4.0% | 4.4% | -0.4 pp | |
| Matthew Stafford | 2.0% | 2.1% | -0.1 pp | |
| Bryce Young | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Kenneth Walker | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | -- | 1.9% | -- | |
| Jalen Hurts | -- | 1.7% | -- | |
| Bo Nix | -- | 0.6% | -- | |
| Justin Herbert | -- | 0.6% | -- | |
| Derrick Henry | -- | 0.6% | -- | |
| Baker Mayfield | -- | 0.3% | -- | |
| Saquon Barkley | -- | 0.3% | -- | |
| Jaxson Dart | -- | 0.2% | -- | |
| Justin Jefferson | -- | 0.2% | -- | |
| Puka Nacua | -- | 0.2% | -- |
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Offensive Player of the Year
13 quoted by both · 32 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 30%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 4.0% | 8.6% | -4.6 pp | |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2.0% | 6.0% | -4.0 pp | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 12.0% | 14.0% | -2.0 pp | |
| Derrick Henry | 4.0% | 5.9% | -1.9 pp | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 26.0% | 27.0% | -1.0 pp | |
| Bijan Robinson | 16.0% | 17.0% | -1.0 pp | |
| Brock Bowers | 3.0% | 2.2% | +0.8 pp | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2.0% | 2.6% | -0.6 pp | |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3.0% | 2.6% | +0.4 pp | |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2.0% | 2.3% | -0.3 pp | |
| Zay Flowers | 2.0% | 1.7% | +0.3 pp | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3.0% | 3.2% | -0.2 pp | |
| Josh Allen | 4.0% | 3.9% | +0.1 pp | |
| Kenneth Walker III | -- | 17.1% | -- | |
| Kenneth Walker | 16.0% | -- | -- | |
| TreVeyon Henderson | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Saquon Barkley | -- | 2.9% | -- | |
| Justin Jefferson | -- | 2.4% | -- | |
| Nico Collins | -- | 2.2% | -- | |
| Javonte Williams | -- | 2.1% | -- | |
| Chris Olave | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Christian Watson | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Drake London | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Parker Washington | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Ashton Jeanty | -- | 1.9% | -- | |
| Bucky Irving | -- | 1.8% | -- | |
| James Cook III | -- | 1.6% | -- | |
| Malik Nabers | -- | 1.5% | -- | |
| Justin Herbert | -- | 1.4% | -- | |
| A.J. Brown | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Breece Hall | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Caleb Williams | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Davante Adams | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Drake Maye | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Josh Jacobs | -- | 1.3% | -- | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | -- | 1.2% | -- | |
| Jalen Hurts | -- | 0.9% | -- | |
| Jayden Daniels | -- | 0.5% | -- | |
| Joe Burrow | -- | 0.5% | -- | |
| Kyren Williams | -- | 0.5% | -- | |
| Lamar Jackson | -- | 0.5% | -- | |
| Patrick Mahomes | -- | 0.5% | -- | |
| Chase Brown | -- | 0.4% | -- | |
| De'Von Achane | -- | 0.4% | -- | |
| Rashee Rice | -- | 0.4% | -- |
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Defensive Player of the Year
7 quoted by both · 31 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 50%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 14.0% | 4.0% | +10.0 pp | |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 43.0% | 41.0% | +2.0 pp | |
| Abdul Carter | 2.0% | 4.0% | -2.0 pp | |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 7.0% | 9.0% | -2.0 pp | |
| Kyle Hamilton | 2.0% | 3.0% | -1.0 pp | |
| Trent McDuffie | 2.0% | 3.0% | -1.0 pp | |
| T.J. Watt | 5.0% | 4.8% | +0.2 pp | |
| Dallas Turner | 9.0% | -- | -- | |
| Greg Rousseau | 6.0% | -- | -- | |
| Micah Parsons | -- | 5.9% | -- | |
| Brian Burns | -- | 5.0% | -- | |
| Nick Bosa | -- | 5.0% | -- | |
| Myles Garrett | -- | 4.3% | -- | |
| Nik Bonitto | 4.0% | -- | -- | |
| Chris Jones | -- | 4.0% | -- | |
| Maxx Crosby | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Brian Branch | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Budda Baker | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Chop Robinson | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Christian Wilkins | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Devon Witherspoon | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Haason Reddick | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Jessie Bates III | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Josh Hines-Allen | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Josh Sweat | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Montez Sweat | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Nolan Smith Jr. | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Patrick Surtain II | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Quinnen Williams | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Sauce Gardner | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Xavier McKinney | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Zack Baun | -- | 3.0% | -- | |
| Jalen Carter | -- | 2.6% | -- | |
| Danielle Hunter | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Dexter Lawrence II | -- | 1.1% | -- |
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Offensive Rookie of the Year
4 quoted by both · 11 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 40%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | 19.0% | 23.0% | -4.0 pp | |
| Makai Lemon | 2.0% | 4.1% | -2.1 pp | |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 2.0% | 1.1% | +0.9 pp | |
| Fernando Mendoza | 6.0% | 5.9% | +0.1 pp | |
| Denzel Boston | 31.0% | -- | -- | |
| Carnell Tate | 16.0% | -- | -- | |
| Carson Beck | 4.0% | -- | -- | |
| Germie Bernard | 4.0% | -- | -- | |
| KC Concepcion | 4.0% | -- | -- | |
| Antonio Williams | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Jordyn Tyson | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Jadarian Price | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Jalon Daniels | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | -- | 1.6% | -- |
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Defensive Rookie of the Year
5 quoted by both · 8 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 40%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansoor Delane | 4.0% | 6.2% | -2.2 pp | |
| David Bailey | 34.0% | 36.0% | -2.0 pp | |
| Sonny Styles | 9.0% | 9.4% | -0.4 pp | |
| Arvell Reese | 22.0% | 22.2% | -0.2 pp | |
| Akheem Mesidor | 3.0% | 3.2% | -0.2 pp | |
| Jacob Rodriguez | 23.0% | -- | -- | |
| Malachi Lawrence | -- | 5.8% | -- | |
| Caleb Downs | -- | 4.0% | -- | |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | -- | 3.1% | -- | |
| Anthony Hill Jr. | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Gabe Jacas | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Dillon Thieneman | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Josiah Trotter | 2.0% | -- | -- |
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Coach of the Year
5 quoted by both · 9 single-venue
Dot scale 0 to 30%. Hollow dot is Kalshi, solid dot is Polymarket.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Venue gapKalshi − Poly | Prices on one scale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Minter | 7.0% | 11.0% | -4.0 pp | |
| Kellen Moore | 2.0% | 5.9% | -3.9 pp | |
| John Harbaugh | 14.0% | 11.9% | +2.1 pp | |
| Andy Reid | 4.0% | 5.0% | -1.0 pp | |
| Ben Johnson | 6.0% | 6.8% | -0.8 pp | |
| Kyle Shanahan | 27.0% | -- | -- | |
| Kevin O'Connell | 10.0% | -- | -- | |
| Todd Monken | 10.0% | -- | -- | |
| Klint Kubiak | 8.0% | -- | -- | |
| Liam Coen | 5.0% | -- | -- | |
| Aaron Glenn | 4.0% | -- | -- | |
| Dave Canales | 3.0% | -- | -- | |
| Joe Brady | 2.0% | -- | -- | |
| Zac Taylor | 2.0% | -- | -- |
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Methodology: prices are each venue’s YES ask, shown only on a fresh, two-sided book with a spread of 5¢ or less, with no vig removal. “Venue gap” is the Kalshi price minus the Polymarket price in percentage points, shown only where both venues quote the same outcome; outcomes are paired on an exact name match, never a fuzzy one. Team futures are quoted by a single venue, so they carry no venue gap. These are market prices, not model output and not a recommendation.