How the market priced Ohio State at Iowa

No. 5 Ohio State visits No. 14 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 3:30 PM ET on CBS. Ten US-regulated sportsbooks make Ohio State an 83.6% favorite to win once the vig is removed. The spread is 14.5 and the total is 45.5. Kalshi and Polymarket both ask 85 cents for Ohio State.

Prices below were captured at 16:40 UTC on Saturday, a little under three hours before kickoff. They will keep moving.

The line

Nine of the ten books have Ohio State -14.5 and BetMGM has -14. At 14.5 the books charge more for Iowa. Iowa +14.5 costs between -110 and -117, and Ohio State -14.5 costs between -104 and -110. All ten books have the total at 45.5.

On the moneyline Ohio State runs from -625 at Caesars to -770 at BetRivers, Bally Bet and betPARX. Iowa runs from +450 to +500. De-vigged, that is 82.6% for Ohio State at Caesars and 84.2% at Bally Bet and betPARX, a range of 1.6 points.

How it moved

The line opened lower. At our first capture with all ten books, at 18:10 UTC on Sunday, September 27, the most common spread was Ohio State -13.5 and the total was 44.5. The total reached 45.5 that same afternoon. The spread reached -14.5 at most books by Tuesday evening and has stayed there, apart from one hour on Friday when the books split evenly between -14 and -14.5.

The win probability barely moved. Across 175 captures with all ten books, Ohio State's no-vig win probability stayed between 82.3% and 83.7%. A point of spread came and went without changing who the market expects to win.

Kalshi and Polymarket against the books

• Ohio State (Ohio State at Iowa), Kalshi ask 85c, Polymarket ask 85c, book consensus 83.6%
• Iowa (Ohio State at Iowa), Kalshi ask 16c, Polymarket ask 16c, book consensus 16.4%

Both venues quote a one-cent bid-ask spread on each side. The 85-cent ask for Ohio State is above the highest de-vigged price at any of the ten books (84.2%), so buying Ohio State costs more on the venues than at a sportsbook. Iowa's 16-cent ask is 0.4 cents below consensus.

Kalshi also lists the spread and total as contracts. Ohio State to win by more than 14.5 points asks 49 cents, and by more than 13.5 asks 56 cents. Over 45.5 total points asks 50 cents. Those match the sportsbook numbers. Kalshi's team totals put Ohio State near 30 points (over 29.5 asks 54 cents, over 30.5 asks 50) and Iowa near 15.5 (over 15.5 asks 49 cents).

How the numbers were built

Book figures use ten US-regulated sportsbooks, which are DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics, theScore Bet, Hard Rock Bet, Bally Bet and betPARX. Offshore books and Pinnacle are excluded. A spread or total is the most common number across those books in a capture. Win probabilities remove the vig by normalising each book's two moneyline prices to sum to one, then average across books. The earlier figures use the same ten books.

A venue price counts only at its ask, only if both a bid and an ask are present, only if the ask is no more than five cents above the bid, and only if it was captured within the last three hours. No midpoint is ever substituted. Asks are before venue trading fees. Rankings are the AP Top 25.

This note describes where prices sit and how they have moved. It is not a recommendation. Every game and market is at troxler.io/games.