NLDS Game 3 tonight, how the market and model read Dodgers at Braves and Brewers at Padres

Both National League Division Series reach Game 3 tonight. The series are best of five. Dodgers at Braves is tied 1-1. Brewers at Padres has Milwaukee ahead 2-0. Prices below were read from troxler.io at 12:35 PM ET (16:35 UTC), and they will keep moving until first pitch.

Dodgers at Braves, 6:00 PM ET, Truist Park

Series so far. Los Angeles won Game 1 by 5-3 and Atlanta won Game 2 by 3-2, both at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers finished 100-62 and the Braves 94-68.

Pitching. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) is 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA, on 12 days of rest. Chris Sale (LHP) is 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA, on 4 days of rest. Those are the season lines shown on the game card.

Where the market sits. Six US-regulated sportsbooks make the Dodgers a 50.2% favorite with the vig removed, which leaves Atlanta at 49.8%. The best US moneyline prices on the card are Dodgers -115 and Braves -105. Kalshi asks 51 cents for the Dodgers and 50 for the Braves, and Polymarket has the Dodgers at 50 and the Braves at 51. The total is 6 runs.

Line movement. The Dodgers moneyline moved from -102 to -115 and Atlanta's from -118 to -105, a 3.0 point swing in the Dodgers direction. The total came down from 6.5 to 6.

What the model reads. The Troxler model has Atlanta at 51.6% and the Dodgers at 48.4%, against 50.2% for the books. Its predicted total is 7.2 runs, above the posted 6.

Brewers at Padres, 9:30 PM ET, Petco Park

Series so far. Milwaukee won Game 1 by 3-2 and Game 2 by 4-3, both at American Family Field. The Brewers finished 103-59 and the Padres 91-71.

Pitching. Dustin May (RHP) is 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA, on 9 days of rest. Nick Pivetta (RHP) is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA over 34.2 innings, on 5 days of rest. Those are the lines shown on the game card, and Pivetta's is a short sample next to May's 145.2 innings.

Where the market sits. Six US books make San Diego a 55.7% favorite, which leaves Milwaukee at 44.3%. The best US moneyline prices are Padres -138 and Brewers +114. Kalshi asks 56 cents for San Diego and 45 for Milwaukee, and Polymarket asks the same 56 and 45. The total is 7.5.

Line movement. The Padres moneyline moved from -126 to -138 and Milwaukee's from +108 to +114, a 2.2 point move toward San Diego. The total went up from 6.5 to 7.5.

What the model reads. The model has San Diego at 57.7% and Milwaukee at 42.3%, against 55.7% for the books. Its predicted total is 8.7 runs against the posted 7.5.

What Game 3 means for each series

In a best-of-five, the winner of a tied series goes up 2-1 and is one win from advancing. Tonight's Dodgers and Braves winner holds that position. A Milwaukee win ends its series 3-0, while a San Diego win forces Game 4 at Petco Park. Game 4 in each series is Wednesday, and a Game 5 would be Friday, October 9, with the Padres at Milwaukee and the Braves at Los Angeles.

How the numbers were built

Book consensus is the average de-vigged moneyline probability across six US-regulated sportsbooks as shown on troxler.io, with offshore books excluded. Kalshi and Polymarket figures are venue asks, before trading fees. Series results, starters and the game schedule come from the MLB Stats API, and season records and pitcher lines are as shown on the troxler.io game cards. Model figures are the Troxler ensemble's win probability and predicted total. Weather is left out.

This note describes where prices sit and what the model reads. It is not a recommendation. Every game and market is at troxler.io/games.