How the market priced NFL Week 5, Thursday through Monday

Fifteen Week 5 games run from Thursday night to Monday night. Tampa Bay at Dallas opens the week on Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 PM ET, thirteen games follow on Sunday, October 11, including Philadelphia at Jacksonville in London at 9:30 AM ET, and Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams closes it on Monday, October 12. Since the Week 4 Sunday games began, six of the fifteen have moved by five or more points of no-vig win probability at US-regulated sportsbooks, and one total has dropped six points.

Book prices below were captured at 15:45 UTC on Thursday, October 8, about 8.5 hours before the first kickoff at 00:15 UTC Friday. Prices will keep moving before every game, and the Sunday and Monday games have roughly three to four days left to move.

The biggest moves since Week 4 began

Each comparison uses the same sportsbooks on both sides, which for the starting point meant four books. Spreads are from the home team's side, so a plus sign means the home team is the underdog.

• Baltimore at Atlanta, spread +6 to -3.5, win probability 30.2% to 61.2% (+31.0 points)
• Philadelphia at Jacksonville, spread -2.5 to -7.5, win probability 57.0% to 75.8% (+18.8 points)
• Chicago at Green Bay, spread -2.5 to +1.5, win probability 55.2% to 45.8% (-9.4 points)
• Cincinnati at Miami, spread +8.5 to +6.5, win probability 20.2% to 27.2% (+7.0 points)
• Denver at Los Angeles Chargers, spread +2.5 to +3.5, win probability 44.8% to 37.9% (-6.9 points)
• New York Giants at Washington, spread -2.5 to -3.5, win probability 57.1% to 62.7% (+5.6 points)
• Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, spread -2.5 to -3.5, win probability 55.5% to 60.3% (+4.8 points)
• Houston at Tennessee, spread +6.5 to +7.5, win probability 27.1% to 24.0% (-3.1 points)
• San Francisco at Seattle, spread -3.5 to -3, win probability 62.3% to 60.0% (-2.3 points)

Atlanta went from 6-point underdogs to 3.5-point favorites, the largest move on the board by a wide margin. The stored price series shows Atlanta at +2.5 at 05:16 UTC on Tuesday, October 6 and -3 at 16:50 UTC that day. The total in that game fell from 49.5 to 43.5 over the same span as the table. We do not know what caused it and do not attribute it to anything.

Jacksonville's move is the second largest, in the game played in London. At our earliest capture, on September 7, four books had Jacksonville as 1.5-point underdogs. The same capture had Green Bay as 3.5-point favorites over Chicago, and they are now 1.5-point underdogs.

Two baselines are earlier than the rest. For Cleveland at New York Jets and Indianapolis at Pittsburgh our history holds no capture with three or more books between Friday, October 2 at 00:05 UTC and the cutoff, so their starting point is that capture.

The other six games moved by less than two points of win probability. In descending order of absolute change, they are Cleveland at New York Jets (1.9 points), Tampa Bay at Dallas (1.6), Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (0.8), Las Vegas at New England (0.7), Minnesota at New Orleans (0.5) and Detroit at Arizona (0.0 at the precision shown). Three show the same spread as before Week 4, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, Las Vegas at New England and Detroit at Arizona.

Totals

• Baltimore at Atlanta, total 49.5 to 43.5 (-6.0)
• Cincinnati at Miami, total 46.5 to 42.5 (-4.0)
• Minnesota at New Orleans, total 44.5 to 41.5 (-3.0)
• Philadelphia at Jacksonville, total 44.5 to 41.5 (-3.0)
• Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, total 52.5 to 54.5 (+2.0)
• Detroit at Arizona, total 52.5 to 54.5 (+2.0)

Houston at Tennessee carries the lowest total on the board at 38.5. Detroit at Arizona and Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams share the highest at 54.5. Tampa Bay at Dallas carries the largest spread, with Dallas at -8.5, followed by Philadelphia at Jacksonville with Jacksonville at -7.5 and Houston at Tennessee with Houston at -7.5.

Since Wednesday morning

The pull's 24h comparison uses the 11:16 UTC capture on Wednesday, October 7 and the 15:45 UTC capture on Thursday, a span of 28 hours and 29 minutes. Four spreads changed. In descending order of absolute change, Chicago at Green Bay went from Green Bay +3 to +1.5, Cleveland at New York Jets from New York -2.5 to -1.5, Cincinnati at Miami from Miami +7 to +6.5 and Minnesota at New Orleans from New Orleans +1.5 to +2.

The largest win probability move over that span was Chicago at Green Bay, where Green Bay went from 41.7% to 45.9% (4.2 points using the displayed probabilities). Cincinnati at Miami was next, with Miami from 24.8% to 27.2% (2.4), then Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, with the Rams from 59.0% to 60.6% (1.6). Five totals changed. In descending order of absolute change, they are New York Giants at Washington (43.5 to 41.5), Houston at Tennessee (37.5 to 38.5), Tampa Bay at Dallas (47.5 to 48.5), Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (42.5 to 42) and Minnesota at New Orleans (42 to 41.5).

Those are the most common spreads and totals across all seven books. The first two tables compare only the four baseline books. The matched-book Rams spread is -3.5 versus -3 across all seven, and the matched-book Houston at Tennessee total is 37.5 versus 38.5. Cleveland at New York Jets has a matched-book total of 39.5 versus 40. New Orleans is now +2 and the Philadelphia at Jacksonville total is 41.5 in both sets.

Where the sportsbooks disagree

The widest disagreement among sportsbooks is 2.8 points of win probability for Philadelphia at Jacksonville, where Jacksonville ranges from 74.4% at DraftKings to 77.2% at BetRivers, Bally Bet and betParx. Next come Houston at Tennessee (2.6 points), New York Giants at Washington and Cleveland at New York Jets (2.2 each), and San Francisco at Seattle and Detroit at Arizona (2.1 each). Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams is at 1.9. Tennessee ranges from 22.3% to 24.9% across books and the Rams from 59.5% to 61.4%.

Injuries

Our injury table, last updated at 13:01 UTC on Thursday, October 8, holds nine game designations across Tampa Bay and Dallas, with seven Out, two Questionable and none Doubtful. Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield is listed Out, along with Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison and SirVocea Dennis. Dallas lists Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown and Drew Shelton as Out, and Jonathan Mingo and Tyler Smith as Questionable. The other 28 teams have no game designation in this snapshot.

We do not attribute any move in this note to an injury or to other news, including Atlanta's. The table holds only the current week and no status-change history, so it cannot establish which came first, a designation or a price move.

How the numbers were built

Line moves use the seven US-regulated books in Troxler's line history, which are DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, Fanatics and theScore Bet. Offshore books and Pinnacle are excluded. A starting point is the last capture before the first Week 4 Sunday kickoff (13:30 UTC on October 4) that held at least three of those books, and it is compared with the latest capture restricted to the same books. A game's line is the most common spread or total across the books in a capture. Win probabilities remove the vig by normalising each book's two moneyline prices to sum to one, then average across books. "Earliest capture" means the first price Troxler recorded, on September 7, from two books for fourteen games and four for Philadelphia at Jacksonville. It is not a book's opening number. The ranges in "Where the sportsbooks disagree" use every US-regulated book listing both moneylines, which was ten books for every game at the 15:45 UTC capture.

This note describes where prices sit and how they have moved. It is not a recommendation. Every game and market is at troxler.io/games, and line history for each game is at troxler.io/line-moves.