Kansas City at Las Vegas, tick by tick: how the market priced the game

Troxler records NFL prices while games are being played. Kalshi's moneyline is captured every 30 seconds and 10 US-regulated sportsbooks every 45 seconds. This is how the market priced Kansas City at Las Vegas.

All prices below are for Las Vegas to win. The Kalshi figure is the ask, the price it cost to buy Las Vegas at that moment, and never a midpoint. The sportsbook figure is the median no-vig price across the books quoting both sides. Times are Eastern.

From kickoff to the final whistle

Las Vegas's last Kalshi price before the first snap was 32% at 4:25 PM ET. Over the game it ranged from 1% at 7:20 PM to 57% at 6:18 PM, and it stood at 1% at the last poll before the final whistle at 7:44 PM. Kansas City won 30-27.

It was 53% at 4:38 PM, just after a Las Vegas touchdown at 4:37 PM, and 37% three minutes after Kansas City tied it at 4:50 PM. It reached its high of 57% at 6:18 PM, with Las Vegas leading 13-10. A Kansas City touchdown at 6:40 PM made it 17-13, and the price was 26% at 6:41 PM. Two Las Vegas field goals, stamped 6:50 and 7:04 PM, put Las Vegas back in front 19-17, and the price had already reached 54% at 7:02 PM. It then fell from 47% to 23% between 7:07 and 7:08 PM, six minutes before the ESPN time of the Kansas City touchdown that followed. A second Kansas City touchdown at 7:17 PM made it 30-19, and the price was 1% at 7:20 PM. Las Vegas scored at 7:27 PM to make it 30-27, and the price rose as high as 18% at 7:34 PM. It fell to 1% within two minutes of a Las Vegas interception at 7:42 PM.

The three largest repricings

We measure a repricing as the net change in the Kalshi ask between two polls no more than three minutes apart. The three largest were 24, 21 and 21 points, one in Las Vegas's favor and two against. In time order:

• 6:59 to 7:02 PM. Kalshi ask 33c to 54c. Sportsbooks 34% to 48% by 7:04 PM. No score or turnover in the span, with Kansas City leading 17-16. The next score, a Las Vegas field goal, carries an ESPN time of 7:04 PM.
• 7:07 to 7:08 PM. Kalshi ask 47c to 23c. Sportsbooks 47% to 23% by 7:10 PM. No score or turnover in the span, with Las Vegas leading 19-17. The next score, a Kansas City touchdown, carries an ESPN time of 7:14 PM.
• 7:16 to 7:19 PM. Kalshi ask 23c to 2c. Sportsbooks 22% to 3% by 7:20 PM. Kansas City scored a touchdown at 7:17 PM, with Kansas City leading 23-19 when the move began.

Book prices are the median at the start of the move and two minutes after its end, because the books reprice a poll or two after Kalshi. Scores and turnover times come from ESPN's play-by-play.

Kalshi against the sportsbooks

Across 262 sportsbook polls with a Kalshi price no more than 30 seconds older, the Kalshi ask sat a median 0.6 points above the sportsbook price, and within two points on 185 of them. The widest gap, -14.4 points, was at 7:43 PM.

The tape has no gaps: from kickoff to the final whistle, 399 Kalshi polls and 266 sportsbook polls, with no interval longer than the capture cadence allows.

Market prices only. Not a recommendation.