Yankees at Rays, ALDS: model and books on the same side, three points apart

Tonight's American League Division Series game at Tropicana Field (8:00 PM ET, TBS and HBO Max) is close to a coin flip on every price we track. This note sets our model's win probability beside the no-vig average of US-regulated sportsbooks. Model output and market prices only. Not a recommendation. Automated picks are not published during the postseason.

The prices

• Our model: New York 50.4% to win.
• Six US sportsbooks, vig removed, average: New York 53.1% (as of 5:35 PM ET).
• Moneyline: New York -125, Tampa Bay +104. Both sides have barely moved since the open (New York -126, Tampa Bay +108).
• Total: 6.5.

The model sits about three points below the books on New York. The model has not been scored on postseason games, which is why it publishes predictions and no picks in October.

The matchup

Cam Schlittler (RHP, 14-6, 1.95 ERA) starts for New York. Freddy Peralta (RHP, 10-11, 4.42 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. New York enters at 93-68 and Tampa Bay at 98-64. The game is under the dome at Tropicana Field, so weather is not a factor.

How to read this

Books is the no-vig win probability averaged across US-regulated sportsbooks. Model is our own prediction for the same team. The live card on the Games page carries the current version of every figure here, and a postgame note will set the final score beside this pregame read.