ALDS Game 5 tonight, how the market and model read White Sox at Guardians
Series tied 2-2 after two blowouts in Chicago. Six US books make Cleveland a 56.1% favorite at home, the model reads 57.4%, and the total has come down to 7. Consensus, Kalshi, Polymarket and the model for the decider.
The American League Division Series between the White Sox and the Guardians goes the distance tonight. The series is best of five and tied 2-2, with Game 5 at Progressive Field at 8:00 PM ET. Prices below were read from troxler.io at 10:30 AM ET (14:30 UTC), and they will keep moving until first pitch.
White Sox at Guardians, 8:00 PM ET, Progressive Field
Series so far. Chicago won Game 1 by 3-0 on Saturday and Game 2 by 4-3 on Monday, both at Progressive Field. Cleveland answered with Game 3 by 9-3 on Wednesday and Game 4 by 9-5 on Thursday, both at Rate Field. The home team has lost every game so far. The Guardians finished 85-77 and the White Sox 84-78, and Chicago took the regular season series 7-6.
Pitching. Sean Burke (RHP) is 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA, on 4 days of rest after starting Game 2. Gavin Williams (RHP) is 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA, and the card shows him on 1 day of rest. He started Game 2 against Burke and then threw one inning of relief in Game 4 on Thursday. Those are the season lines shown on the game card.
Where the market sits. Six US-regulated sportsbooks make Cleveland a 56.1% favorite with the vig removed, which leaves Chicago at 43.9%. The best US moneyline prices on the card are Guardians -142 and White Sox +118. Kalshi asks 57 cents for Cleveland and 44 for Chicago, and Polymarket has the same 57 and 44. The total is 7 runs, and the Kalshi game total ladder implies 7.7.
Line movement. The White Sox moneyline moved from +120 to +118, a 0.4 point move toward Chicago, and Cleveland's has not moved from -142. The total came down from 7.5 to 7.
What the model reads. The Troxler model has Cleveland at 57.4% and Chicago at 42.6%, against 56.1% for the books. Its predicted total is 8.9 runs, well above the posted 7.
What Game 5 means
The winner advances to the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, who swept the Yankees 3-0 in the other ALDS. The ALCS is best of seven and opens at Tropicana Field on Monday, October 12 at 8:00 PM ET, with Game 2 there on Tuesday, October 13. Games 3, 4 and 5 would be at tonight's winner's park from Thursday, October 15. The loser's season ends tonight.
How the numbers were built
Book consensus is the average de-vigged moneyline probability across six US-regulated sportsbooks as shown on troxler.io, with offshore books excluded. Kalshi and Polymarket figures are venue asks, before trading fees. Series results, pitching appearances and the ALCS schedule come from the MLB Stats API, and season records and pitcher lines are as shown on the troxler.io game card. Model figures are the Troxler ensemble's win probability and predicted total. Weather is left out.
This note describes where prices sit and what the model reads. It is not a recommendation. Every game and market is at troxler.io/games.
One email a week: calibration, closing-line value and what moved. Unsubscribe any time.