News
Market notes from Troxler on price moves, venue divergence and market structure.
ALDS Game 5 tonight, how the market and model read White Sox at Guardians
Series tied 2-2 after two blowouts in Chicago. Six US books make Cleveland a 56.1% favorite at home, the model reads 57.4%, and the total has come down to 7. Consensus, Kalshi, Polymarket and the model for the decider.
How the market priced NFL Week 5, Thursday through Monday
Thursday-midday prices for fifteen games across seven US sportsbooks, with line moves since the Week 4 Sunday games began.
NLDS Game 3 tonight, how the market and model read Dodgers at Braves and Brewers at Padres
Dodgers at Braves is a coin flip with the series tied 1-1. Brewers at Padres has San Diego a 55.7% book favorite with Milwaukee up 2-0. Consensus, Kalshi, Polymarket and the model for both Game 3s.
Falcons at Saints, Monday Night Football: the books see a slight Saints edge
Ten US sportsbooks, vig removed, put New Orleans at 52.3% to win. Market prices only.
Yankees at Rays, ALDS: model and books on the same side, three points apart
Model 50.4% and a six-book no-vig average of 53.1% for New York at Tropicana Field. Model output and market prices only.
Kansas City at Las Vegas, tick by tick: how the market priced the game
Kalshi every 30 seconds and 10 US-regulated sportsbooks every 45 seconds, from kickoff to the final whistle.
How the market priced NFL Week 4's Sunday and Monday games
Fifteen games across seven US sportsbooks, with Kalshi and Polymarket asks beside them, and how the lines have moved since Week 3 began.
How the market priced Ohio State at Iowa
No. 5 Ohio State is a 14.5-point favorite at No. 14 Iowa. Ten US sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket, and how the number got there over the week.