Soccer Markets Beta
Premier League match-winner and season-long markets as Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them
Aston Villa FC vs Arsenal FC
Premier League · Mon, Aug 31, 7:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa FC | 13.5% | 13.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Arsenal FC | 66.5% | 65.5% | +1.0 pp |
Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC
Premier League · Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town FC | 17.5% | 17.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 20.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Liverpool FC | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pp |
Newcastle United FC vs AFC Bournemouth
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 11:30 AM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United FC | 43.5% | 43.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.5% | 0.0 pp |
| AFC Bournemouth | 30.5% | 31.5% | -1.0 pp |
Brentford FC vs Sunderland AFC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford FC | 60.5% | 61.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Sunderland AFC | 15.5% | 16.5% | -1.0 pp |
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Leeds United FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 52.5% | 52.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Leeds United FC | 21.5% | 21.5% | 0.0 pp |
Manchester City FC vs Coventry City FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City FC | 82.5% | 82.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 10.5% | 11.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Coventry City FC | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0 pp |
Fulham FC vs Crystal Palace FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham FC | 41.5% | 41.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Crystal Palace FC | 30.5% | 30.5% | 0.0 pp |
Nottingham Forest FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest FC | 37.5% | 38.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 35.5% | 34.5% | +1.0 pp |
Hull City AFC vs Aston Villa FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 5, 4:30 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City AFC | 22.5% | 22.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Aston Villa FC | 51.5% | 52.5% | -1.0 pp |
Everton FC vs Manchester United FC
Premier League · Sun, Sep 6, 1:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton FC | 29.5% | 30.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Manchester United FC | 42.5% | 43.5% | -1.0 pp |
Arsenal FC vs Chelsea FC
Premier League · Sun, Sep 6, 3:30 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal FC | 56.0% | 56.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Chelsea FC | 18.5% | 18.5% | 0.0 pp |
Aston Villa FC vs Nottingham Forest FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa FC | 48.0% | 48.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Nottingham Forest FC | 25.5% | 26.0% | -0.5 pp |
AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 36.0% | 37.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Brentford FC | 36.5% | 37.0% | -0.5 pp |
Chelsea FC vs Hull City AFC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea FC | 76.0% | 78.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Draw | 14.0% | 15.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Hull City AFC | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0.0 pp |
Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace FC | 50.5% | 51.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Ipswich Town FC | 23.0% | 23.0% | 0.0 pp |
Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool FC | 65.0% | 67.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Draw | 20.0% | 19.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Fulham FC | 14.5% | 15.0% | -0.5 pp |
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Everton FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 4:30 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur FC | 46.5% | 48.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 27.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Everton FC | 26.5% | 26.0% | +0.5 pp |
Sunderland AFC vs Arsenal FC
Premier League · Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland AFC | 13.0% | 12.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.0% | 22.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Arsenal FC | 64.5% | 66.0% | -1.5 pp |
Coventry City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Premier League · Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City FC | 21.0% | 21.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 54.5% | 54.0% | +0.5 pp |
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC
Premier League · Sun, Sep 13, 3:30 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United FC | 29.5% | 31.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 24.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Manchester City FC | 44.5% | 45.5% | -1.0 pp |
Leeds United vs Newcastle
Premier League · settles ~Mon, Sep 14, 10:00 PM
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 38.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 38.0% | — | — |
| Newcastle | 40.0% | — | — |
Methodology: prices are the live YES quote on each venue, converted to implied probability with no vig removal — a single-sided contract price already reads as a probability, and de-vigging across two venues with different fee structures would compare adjusted numbers rather than executable ones. The winner market has three legs — home, draw, away — and a venue is shown for a match only when all three of its legs are quoted; a venue with partial legs is omitted rather than shown incomplete. “Spread” is the Kalshi probability minus the Polymarket probability in percentage points, shown only where both venues quote the match. Kickoff times come from the Polymarket listing; where only Kalshi quotes, the time shown is the market’s settlement, roughly three hours after kickoff, and is labeled as such. These are market prices, not model output and not a recommendation.
Recent results
Final scores from the most recent match days. Coverage is the top-five domestic leagues only — Champions League and MLS results are not captured in this substrate.
Premier League
Mon, Aug 24
- Fulham2–3Chelsea
Sun, Aug 23
- Brighton4–0Aston Villa
- Manchester City2–1Bournemouth
- Newcastle2–2Liverpool
Sat, Aug 22
- Brentford3–0Tottenham
- Everton2–0Crystal Palace
- Hull City2–0Manchester United
- Ipswich Town2–1Sunderland
- Nottingham Forest0–1Leeds United
Fri, Aug 21
- Arsenal3–0Coventry