NFL Futures Beta
Season-long markets as Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them
Team futures
Super Bowl Winner
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles RLAR | 16.0% | +525 |
| BuffaloBUF | 7.5% | +1233 |
| SeattleSEA | 7.5% | +1233 |
| BaltimoreBAL | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Kansas CityKC | 5.5% | +1718 |
| CincinnatiCIN | 4.5% | +2122 |
| DallasDAL | 4.5% | +2122 |
| DenverDEN | 4.5% | +2122 |
| HoustonHOU | 4.5% | +2122 |
| Los Angeles CLAC | 4.5% | +2122 |
| New EnglandNE | 4.5% | +2122 |
| PhiladelphiaPHI | 4.5% | +2122 |
| San FranciscoSF | 4.5% | +2122 |
| ChicagoCHI | 3.5% | +2757 |
| DetroitDET | 3.5% | +2757 |
| Green BayGB | 3.5% | +2757 |
| JacksonvilleJAX | 2.5% | +3900 |
| MinnesotaMIN | 2.5% | +3900 |
| IndianapolisIND | 1.5% | +6567 |
| New York GNYG | 1.5% | +6567 |
| PittsburghPIT | 1.5% | +6567 |
| Tampa BayTB | 1.5% | +6567 |
| WashingtonWAS | 1.5% | +6567 |
| ArizonaARI | 1.0% | +9900 |
| AtlantaATL | 1.0% | +9900 |
| CarolinaCAR | 1.0% | +9900 |
| ClevelandCLE | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Las VegasLV | 1.0% | +9900 |
| MiamiMIA | 1.0% | +9900 |
| New OrleansNO | 1.0% | +9900 |
| New York JNYJ | 1.0% | +9900 |
| TennesseeTEN | 1.0% | +9900 |
Playoff Qualifier
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles RLAR | 80.0% | -400 |
| BuffaloBUF | 75.5% | -308 |
| BaltimoreBAL | 71.5% | -251 |
| DetroitDET | 68.0% | -212 |
| SeattleSEA | 66.5% | -199 |
| CincinnatiCIN | 64.5% | -182 |
| New EnglandNE | 64.5% | -182 |
| HoustonHOU | 64.0% | -178 |
| Kansas CityKC | 64.0% | -178 |
| PhiladelphiaPHI | 62.5% | -167 |
| Los Angeles CLAC | 61.5% | -160 |
| DenverDEN | 59.5% | -147 |
| San FranciscoSF | 55.0% | -122 |
| DallasDAL | 53.5% | -115 |
| Green BayGB | 53.5% | -115 |
| JacksonvilleJAX | 53.0% | -113 |
| ChicagoCHI | 51.5% | -106 |
| MinnesotaMIN | 42.5% | +135 |
| Tampa BayTB | 42.5% | +135 |
| IndianapolisIND | 37.5% | +167 |
| New OrleansNO | 35.0% | +186 |
| PittsburghPIT | 34.5% | +190 |
| CarolinaCAR | 30.5% | +228 |
| New York GNYG | 27.5% | +264 |
| AtlantaATL | 25.0% | +300 |
| WashingtonWAS | 25.0% | +300 |
| TennesseeTEN | 16.0% | +525 |
| Las VegasLV | 14.0% | +614 |
| ClevelandCLE | 12.5% | +700 |
| New York JNYJ | 12.5% | +700 |
| MiamiMIA | 6.0% | +1567 |
| ArizonaARI | 5.5% | +1718 |
Best Regular-Season Record
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles RLAR | 15.5% | +545 |
| BaltimoreBAL | 8.0% | +1150 |
| BuffaloBUF | 7.5% | +1233 |
| DetroitDET | 6.5% | +1438 |
| SeattleSEA | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Green BayGB | 5.5% | +1718 |
| HoustonHOU | 5.5% | +1718 |
| CincinnatiCIN | 4.5% | +2122 |
| DallasDAL | 4.5% | +2122 |
| DenverDEN | 4.5% | +2122 |
| Kansas CityKC | 4.5% | +2122 |
| Los Angeles CLAC | 4.5% | +2122 |
| PhiladelphiaPHI | 4.5% | +2122 |
| San FranciscoSF | 4.5% | +2122 |
| New EnglandNE | 3.0% | +3233 |
| ChicagoCHI | 2.5% | +3900 |
| MinnesotaMIN | 2.5% | +3900 |
| IndianapolisIND | 1.5% | +6567 |
| JacksonvilleJAX | 1.5% | +6567 |
| New York GNYG | 1.5% | +6567 |
| Tampa BayTB | 1.5% | +6567 |
| WashingtonWAS | 1.5% | +6567 |
| ArizonaARI | 1.0% | +9900 |
| AtlantaATL | 1.0% | +9900 |
| CarolinaCAR | 1.0% | +9900 |
| ClevelandCLE | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Las VegasLV | 1.0% | +9900 |
| MiamiMIA | 1.0% | +9900 |
| New OrleansNO | 1.0% | +9900 |
| New York JNYJ | 1.0% | +9900 |
| PittsburghPIT | 1.0% | +9900 |
| TennesseeTEN | 1.0% | +9900 |
Worst Regular-Season Record
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ArizonaARI | 25.5% | +292 |
| MiamiMIA | 22.5% | +344 |
| ClevelandCLE | 10.5% | +852 |
| New York JNYJ | 9.5% | +953 |
| Las VegasLV | 7.5% | +1233 |
| TennesseeTEN | 7.5% | +1233 |
| AtlantaATL | 3.5% | +2757 |
| New York GNYG | 3.5% | +2757 |
| WashingtonWAS | 3.5% | +2757 |
| CarolinaCAR | 3.0% | +3233 |
| New OrleansNO | 2.0% | +4900 |
| IndianapolisIND | 1.5% | +6567 |
| MinnesotaMIN | 1.5% | +6567 |
| Tampa BayTB | 1.5% | +6567 |
| BaltimoreBAL | 1.0% | +9900 |
| BuffaloBUF | 1.0% | +9900 |
| ChicagoCHI | 1.0% | +9900 |
| CincinnatiCIN | 1.0% | +9900 |
| DallasDAL | 1.0% | +9900 |
| DenverDEN | 1.0% | +9900 |
| DetroitDET | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Green BayGB | 1.0% | +9900 |
| HoustonHOU | 1.0% | +9900 |
| JacksonvilleJAX | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Kansas CityKC | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Los Angeles CLAC | 1.0% | +9900 |
| Los Angeles RLAR | 1.0% | +9900 |
| New EnglandNE | 1.0% | +9900 |
| PhiladelphiaPHI | 1.0% | +9900 |
| PittsburghPIT | 1.0% | +9900 |
| San FranciscoSF | 1.0% | +9900 |
| SeattleSEA | 1.0% | +9900 |
5+ Primetime Games
32 clubs · Kalshi
| Club | Implied | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| DallasDAL | 97.5% | -3900 |
| PhiladelphiaPHI | 97.5% | -3900 |
| ChicagoCHI | 96.5% | -2757 |
| Kansas CityKC | 96.5% | -2757 |
| BuffaloBUF | 96.0% | -2400 |
| SeattleSEA | 96.0% | -2400 |
| Green BayGB | 95.0% | -1900 |
| Los Angeles RLAR | 90.5% | -953 |
| New EnglandNE | 84.5% | -545 |
| DenverDEN | 82.5% | -471 |
| DetroitDET | 80.5% | -413 |
| PittsburghPIT | 54.5% | -120 |
| San FranciscoSF | 27.0% | +270 |
| BaltimoreBAL | 25.0% | +300 |
| MinnesotaMIN | 22.0% | +355 |
| Los Angeles CLAC | 19.0% | +426 |
| WashingtonWAS | 18.0% | +456 |
| HoustonHOU | 16.0% | +525 |
| New York GNYG | 13.0% | +669 |
| IndianapolisIND | 11.0% | +809 |
| New York JNYJ | 10.0% | +900 |
| CincinnatiCIN | 7.0% | +1329 |
| JacksonvilleJAX | 6.5% | +1438 |
| Las VegasLV | 6.0% | +1567 |
| AtlantaATL | 5.0% | +1900 |
| MiamiMIA | 5.0% | +1900 |
| ArizonaARI | 3.0% | +3233 |
| CarolinaCAR | 3.0% | +3233 |
| New OrleansNO | 2.5% | +3900 |
| Tampa BayTB | 2.0% | +4900 |
| TennesseeTEN | 1.5% | +6567 |
| ClevelandCLE | 1.0% | +9900 |
Awards
The one market family both venues quote, so the two books can be compared directly.
Most Valuable Player
26 quoted by both · 22 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 6.5% | 10.5% | -4.0 pp |
| Justin Herbert | 9.5% | 12.5% | -3.0 pp |
| Dak Prescott | 6.5% | 8.8% | -2.3 pp |
| Caleb Williams | 6.5% | 8.6% | -2.1 pp |
| Matthew Stafford | 6.5% | 4.5% | +2.0 pp |
| Jordan Love | 4.5% | 2.6% | +1.8 pp |
| Jared Goff | 2.5% | 1.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Sam Darnold | 2.5% | 1.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Brock Purdy | 4.5% | 3.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Josh Allen | 10.5% | 11.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6.5% | 5.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1.0% | 0.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Justin Jefferson | 1.0% | 0.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Myles Garrett | 1.0% | 0.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Puka Nacua | 1.0% | 0.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3.5% | 2.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Bo Nix | 2.5% | 1.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Bijan Robinson | 1.0% | 0.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Christian McCaffrey | 1.0% | 0.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Saquon Barkley | 1.0% | 0.4% | +0.7 pp |
| Jaxson Dart | 1.5% | 0.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Joe Burrow | 9.5% | 10.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Jalen Hurts | 2.5% | 2.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.5% | 1.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.0% | 1.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Lamar Jackson | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Jayden Daniels | 3.5% | — | — |
| Cam Ward | 1.5% | — | — |
| CJ Stroud | 1.5% | — | — |
| Kyler Murray | 1.5% | — | — |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1.0% | — | — |
| A.J. Brown | 1.0% | — | — |
| Ashton Jeanty | 1.0% | — | — |
| Bryce Young | 1.0% | — | — |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1.0% | — | — |
| Daniel Jones | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1.0% | — | — |
| JJ McCarthy | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1.0% | — | — |
| Josh Jacobs | 1.0% | — | — |
| Micah Parsons | 1.0% | — | — |
| Michael Penix Jr | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tyler Shough | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jaxson Smith-Njigba | — | 0.3% | — |
| Derrick Henry | — | 0.1% | — |
| De'Von Achane | — | 0.1% | — |
Offensive Player of the Year
37 quoted by both · 22 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4.5% | 9.0% | -4.5 pp |
| Justin Herbert | 1.0% | 4.5% | -3.5 pp |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 14.5% | 16.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 8.5% | 10.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Malik Nabers | 1.5% | 3.1% | -1.6 pp |
| Josh Allen | 2.0% | 3.6% | -1.6 pp |
| Puka Nacua | 8.0% | 9.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Ladd McConkey | 2.0% | 3.2% | -1.2 pp |
| De'Von Achane | 1.5% | 2.6% | -1.1 pp |
| A.J. Brown | 3.5% | 2.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Breece Hall | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Bucky Irving | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Chase Brown | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Jayden Daniels | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Joe Burrow | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Kyren Williams | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Lamar Jackson | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Rashee Rice | 1.5% | 2.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Derrick Henry | 4.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Jalen Hurts | 1.0% | 2.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4.5% | 3.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Saquon Barkley | 3.5% | 4.2% | -0.6 pp |
| Ashton Jeanty | 1.5% | 2.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Davante Adams | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Drake Maye | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Josh Jacobs | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3.0% | 3.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Bijan Robinson | 10.5% | 10.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Brock Bowers | 2.5% | 2.1% | +0.4 pp |
| James Cook III | 3.5% | 3.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Nico Collins | 3.0% | 2.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4.5% | 4.7% | -0.2 pp |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3.5% | 3.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Caleb Williams | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Justin Jefferson | 6.5% | 6.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Omarion Hampton | 2.5% | — | — |
| Kenneth Walker III | — | 2.1% | — |
| Tetairoa McMillan | — | 2.1% | — |
| Zay Flowers | — | 2.1% | — |
| Javonte Williams | — | 1.6% | — |
| TreVeyon Henderson | — | 1.6% | — |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.0% | — | — |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1.0% | — | — |
| C.J. Stroud | 1.0% | — | — |
| DJ Moore | 1.0% | — | — |
| DK Metcalf | 1.0% | — | — |
| Drake London | 1.0% | — | — |
| Joe Mixon | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jordan Love | 1.0% | — | — |
| Kyler Murray | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tee Higgins | 1.0% | — | — |
| Terry McLaurin | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1.0% | — | — |
| Travis Hunter | 1.0% | — | — |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tyreek Hill | 1.0% | — | — |
Defensive Player of the Year
38 quoted by both · 17 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Carter | 2.5% | 8.2% | -5.7 pp |
| Micah Parsons | 1.5% | 6.0% | -4.5 pp |
| Myles Garrett | 17.5% | 21.5% | -4.0 pp |
| Nik Bonitto | 5.5% | 8.5% | -3.0 pp |
| Abdul Carter | 4.5% | 2.2% | +2.3 pp |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 12.0% | 14.0% | -2.0 pp |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2.5% | 4.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Brian Burns | 1.5% | 3.3% | -1.8 pp |
| Christian Gonzalez | 1.5% | 3.1% | -1.6 pp |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 1.5% | 3.1% | -1.6 pp |
| Brian Branch | 0.0% | 1.6% | -1.6 pp |
| Jared Verse | 2.0% | 3.5% | -1.5 pp |
| T.J. Watt | 3.5% | 4.6% | -1.1 pp |
| Chris Jones | 1.0% | 2.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Nick Bosa | 3.5% | 2.8% | +0.8 pp |
| Danielle Hunter | 2.5% | 3.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Budda Baker | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Chop Robinson | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Christian Wilkins | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Dexter Lawrence II | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Haason Reddick | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Jessie Bates III | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Josh Sweat | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Montez Sweat | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Nolan Smith Jr. | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Quinnen Williams | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Trent McDuffie | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Xavier McKinney | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Zack Baun | 1.0% | 1.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 14.5% | 15.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Fred Warner | 2.5% | 2.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Maxx Crosby | 4.5% | 4.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Devon Witherspoon | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Kyle Hamilton | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Sauce Gardner | 1.5% | 1.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Patrick Surtain II | — | 1.6% | — |
| Nick Emmanwori | 1.5% | — | — |
| Pat Surtain | 1.5% | — | — |
| Will McDonald IV | 1.5% | — | — |
| David Bailey | 1.0% | — | — |
| Devin Lloyd | 1.0% | — | — |
| Ed Oliver | 1.0% | — | — |
| Greg Rousseau | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jalen Ramsey | 1.0% | — | — |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1.0% | — | — |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 1.0% | — | — |
| Leonard Williams | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1.0% | — | — |
| Travon Walker | 1.0% | — | — |
| Zach Allen | 1.0% | — | — |
| Kerby Joseph | 0.0% | — | — |
| Rashan Gary | 0.0% | — | — |
Offensive Rookie of the Year
5 quoted by both · 22 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Makai Lemon | 5.5% | 3.8% | +1.8 pp |
| Fernando Mendoza | 12.5% | 14.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 2.5% | 3.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 1.5% | 2.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Jeremiyah Love | 15.5% | 16.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Jadarian Price | 13.5% | — | — |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 12.0% | — | — |
| Carnell Tate | 11.5% | — | — |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 5.0% | — | — |
| KC Concepcion | 5.0% | — | — |
| Carson Beck | 3.5% | — | — |
| Denzel Boston | 3.5% | — | — |
| Chris Bell | 1.5% | — | — |
| Cyrus Allen | 1.5% | — | — |
| Drew Allar | 1.5% | — | — |
| Jonah Coleman | 1.5% | — | — |
| Jordyn Tyson | 1.5% | — | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 1.5% | — | — |
| Ty Simpson | 1.5% | — | — |
| Zachariah Branch | 1.5% | — | — |
| Chris Brazzell II | 1.0% | — | — |
| Elijah Sarratt | 1.0% | — | — |
| Eli Stowers | 1.0% | — | — |
| Garrett Nussmeier | 1.0% | — | — |
| Germie Bernard | 1.0% | — | — |
| Haynes King | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1.0% | — | — |
Defensive Rookie of the Year
7 quoted by both · 16 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 23.5% | 18.0% | +5.5 pp |
| Caleb Downs | 18.5% | 13.0% | +5.5 pp |
| David Bailey | 16.5% | 13.5% | +3.0 pp |
| Sonny Styles | 10.5% | 7.5% | +3.0 pp |
| Mansoor Delane | 3.5% | 6.0% | -2.5 pp |
| Akheem Mesidor | 6.5% | 4.5% | +2.1 pp |
| Arvell Reese | 10.0% | 11.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Jacob Rodriguez | 6.5% | — | — |
| Brandon Cisse | 4.5% | — | — |
| Malachi Lawrence | — | 4.0% | — |
| Cashius Howell | 2.5% | — | — |
| Dillon Thieneman | 2.5% | — | — |
| Peter Woods | 2.5% | — | — |
| Caleb Banks | 1.5% | — | — |
| CJ Allen | 1.5% | — | — |
| D'Angelo Ponds | 1.5% | — | — |
| Emmanuel McNeil-Warren | 1.5% | — | — |
| Jermod McCoy | 1.5% | — | — |
| Keldric Faulk | 1.5% | — | — |
| Zion Young | 1.5% | — | — |
| Colton Hood | 1.0% | — | — |
| Kayden McDonald | 1.0% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 1.0% | — | — |
Coach of the Year
9 quoted by both · 24 single-venue
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Moore | 8.5% | 6.0% | +2.5 pp |
| Robert Saleh | 5.5% | 4.0% | +1.5 pp |
| John Harbaugh | 11.5% | 10.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Joe Brady | 3.5% | 4.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Kevin Stefanski | 3.5% | 4.5% | -1.0 pp |
| Shane Steichen | 2.5% | 3.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Jesse Minter | 10.5% | 11.0% | -0.5 pp |
| Ben Johnson | 4.0% | 4.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Andy Reid | 2.5% | 2.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 8.0% | — | — |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5.5% | — | — |
| Klint Kubiak | 5.5% | — | — |
| Sean McVay | 5.0% | — | — |
| Aaron Glenn | 4.5% | — | — |
| Kevin O'Connell | 4.5% | — | — |
| Kyle Shanahan | 3.5% | — | — |
| Liam Coen | 3.5% | — | — |
| Mike McCarthy | 3.5% | — | — |
| Todd Monken | 3.5% | — | — |
| Dan Campbell | 2.5% | — | — |
| DeMeco Ryans | 2.5% | — | — |
| Tie/Co-Winners | 2.0% | — | — |
| Dan Quinn | 1.5% | — | — |
| Dave Canales | 1.5% | — | — |
| Jeff Hafley | 1.5% | — | — |
| Matt LaFleur | 1.5% | — | — |
| Mike LaFleur | 1.5% | — | — |
| Mike Macdonald | 1.5% | — | — |
| Nick Sirianni | 1.5% | — | — |
| Sean Payton | 1.5% | — | — |
| Todd Bowles | 1.5% | — | — |
| Zac Taylor | 1.5% | — | — |
| Mike Vrabel | 1.0% | — | — |
Methodology: prices are the live YES quote on each venue, converted to implied probability with no vig removal — a single-sided contract price already reads as a probability, and de-vigging across two venues with different fee structures would compare adjusted numbers rather than executable ones. “Spread” is the Kalshi probability minus the Polymarket probability in percentage points, shown only where both venues quote the same outcome; outcomes are paired on an exact name match, never a fuzzy one. Team futures are quoted by a single venue, so they carry no spread. These are market prices, not model output and not a recommendation.